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Contents

Preface xiii 1 A systems view of business 1 Overview 1 A systems view of business operations 2 A manufacturing business model 3 Finance and cost accounting 3 The marketing function 5 The production function 5 Management decision-making 12 Enterprise resource planning (ERP) 15 References and further reading 16 2 Model-building tools 17 Overview 17 Modelling characteristics 18 Risk and uncertainty in decision-making 20 Linear programming (LP) 21 Using Excel's 'Analysis ToolPak' 26 Statistical methods 27 Decision analysis 34 Simulation 42 Excel functions used in model-building 46 Exercises 49 References and further reading 51 Part 1 Business Models 53 3 Financial models 55 Overview 55 Financial statements 56 Ratio analysis 56 Net present value (NPV) 59 Investment appraisal 61 Portfolio management 64 Capital budgeting using decision trees 68 Cash flow analysis 69 Investment financing: a simulation model 74 Financial planning 78 Commercial add-in products for Excel 82 Excel functions used in model-building 82 Exercises 86 References and further reading 88 4 Investment analysis models 89 Overview 89 Risk preference attitudes 90 Utility theory 91 Portfolio theory: the Markowitz model 94 Portfolio analysis: the efficient frontier 97 Single index model (SIM) 101 The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) 106 Bond valuation 108 Duration and bond volatility 113 The Black-Scholes option pricing model 117 Excel functions used in model-building 120 Exercises 124 References and further reading 126 5 Worksheet applications in cost accounting 127 Overview 127 Cost-volume-profit analysis 128 Depreciation 130 Equipment replacement 132 Statistical replacement analysis 136 Simulation model for replacement/repairs 140 Comparison between simulation and statistical results 144 Budgeting 144 Job costing 150 The learning curve 155 Checking the accuracy of learning curves 158 Excel functions used in model-building 160 Exercises 163 References and further reading 166 6 Marketing models 167 Overview 167 Organising and presenting data 167 Correlation analysis and linear regression 170 Forecasting - time series and exponential smoothing 174 Forecasting - exponential smoothing 178 Salesforce models 186 Goal programming 190 Excel functions used in model-building 200 Exercises 201 References and further reading 205 7 Purchase order processing: a database application 206 Overview 206 Creating a simple macro 207 Purchase order processing 209 Creating the title screen 210 Products and suppliers worksheets 214 Creating the purchase order form 215 Creating the database and its associated macros 219 Macros for transferring data into the database 221 Adding macros to buttons 224 Amending purchase orders 225 Printing purchase orders 230 Protecting the POP database application 232 Excel functions used in model-building 236 Exercises 237 References and further reading 239 Part 2 Models for Operations Management 241 8 Statistical applications in quality control 243 Overview 243 Probability distributions 244 Acceptance sampling 249 Estimation - drawing conclusions from samples 253 Hypothesis testing - checking out a claim! 257 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) 258 Statistical process control 263 Excel functions used in model-building 272 Exercises 275 References and further reading 278 9 Inventory control models 279 Overview 279 Glossary of inventory terms 280 Characteristics of inventory models 281 Deterministic models 282 Production order quantity model 284 Inventory models with constraints 291 Probabilistic models 293 Inventory control: a simulation approach 304 Material requirements planning 307 Lot-sizing methods 315 Just-in-time (JIT) approach to inventory management 318 Excel functions used in model-building 318 Exercises 319 References and further reading 323 10 Models for production operations 324 Overview 324 Logistics models 325 Other network flow applications 331 Production planning and scheduling 339 Queuing models 353 Excel functions used in model-building 362 Exercises 364 References and further reading 369 11 Project management 370 Overview 370 Project management techniques 371 The project network 371 Simulation model for project management 392 Exercises 396 References and further reading 399 Appendix Excel refresher notes 400 Basic Excel commands 400 Drawing charts with ChartWizard 405 Object linking and embedding (OLE) 407 Index 409

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